← GGCP Distorted Reflections Store Championship - 7th September
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at GGCP Distorted Reflections Store Championship - 7th September
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-6-0
overall winrate
14.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
35.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1204
· median 1204
· range 1204–1204
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1276
Q3 1421
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
